LFU:online

Institut für Finanzwissenschaft Institut für Finanzwissenschaft

Univ.-Prof. Pavlo Blavatskyy, MA PhD Univ.-Prof. Pavlo Blavatskyy, MA PhD

404058

VO Angewandte Wirtschaftstheorie: Entscheidungstheorie

VO 2

3

wöch.

jährlich

Englisch

The objective of this course is to present a formal theory of decision making under risk and uncertainty. Students will learn how to model risky and uncertain alternatives. Students will learn important microeconomic concepts of expected utility, risk aversion, loss aversion, certainty equivalent of a risky lottery, first- and second-order stochastic dominance. Students also receive an overview of contemporary descriptive non-expected utility theories (e.g. rank-dependent utility theory and prospect theory).

Distinction between certainty, risk and uncertainty. Preferences over lotteries and expected utility theorem. The Allais paradox and the development of non-expected utility theories. Loss aversion and prospect theory. Elicitation of subjective utility functions. Lotteries over monetary outcomes, St. Petersburg-Menger paradox and risk aversion. First- and second-order stochastic dominance. State-dependent utility. Subjective probability theory. Probabilistic models of decision making under risk.

Lecture with discussion

Written Exam

1) Andreu Mas-Colell, Michael Dennis Whinston, Jerry R. Green (1995): Microeconomic Theory, Oxford University Press, Chapter 6 2) Starmer, Ch. (2000) “Developments in non-expected utility theory: the hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk" Journal of Economic Literature 38, 332-382 3) Knight, F. (1921) "Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit" New York, Houghton Mifflin 4) de Finetti, Bruno (1972), “Probability, Induction and Statistics.” Wiley, New York 5) Gilboa, Itzhak (2008), “Theory of Decision under Uncertainty;” Econometric Society Monograph Series, Cambridge University Press 6) Savage, Leonard J. (1954), “The Foundations of Statistics.” Wiley, New York. (2nd edition 1972, Dover Publications, New York.)

Beginn: 14.03.2011 14:00 Uhr, UR 3