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Institut für Atmosphären- und Kryosphärenwissenschaften Institut für Atmosphären- und Kryosphärenwissenschaften

Dr. Richard W. Katz Dr. Richard W. Katz

707414

Statistical Methods for Weather and Climate Forecasting and Decision Making

VO 2

Block

keine Angabe

keine Angabe

Emphasize modern statistical methods for weather and climate forecasting, as well as statistical issues related to use of forecasts in decision making.

I. Statistical Weather Forecasting i. Traditional methods -- Multiple regression analysis -- Model output statistics (MOS) ii. Probabilistic forecasting -- Subjective -- Objective (logistic or Poisson regression) -- Ensembles (Bayesian smoothing) II. Decision Making Under Uncertainty i. Bayesian decision theory -- Structure (static or dynamic) -- Utility (linear or non-linear) -- Decision-making criteria ii. Weather and climate forecasts -- Optimal use -- Economic value III. Time Series Analysis and Climate Forecasting i. Methodology -- Markov chains -- Autoregressive processes ii. Climate forecasting -- Example: Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) IV. Multivariate Analysis and Climate Forecasting i. Methodology -- Multiple time series analysis -- Principal component analysis -- Canonical correlation analysis ii. Climate forecasting -- Example: SOI (Tahiti & Darwin)

schriftlich und mündlich

Epstein, E.S., 1985: Statistical Inference and Prediction in Climatology: A Bayesian Approach. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA. Katz, R.W., and A.H. Murphy, 1997: Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. von Storch, H., and F.W. Zwiers, 1999: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Wilks, D.S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, San Diego, CA.

Beginn: nach Vorbesprechung

n.V., SR Institut